Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, has shared his thoughts on the possibility of a ceasefire with Russia, suggesting that while it could be achieved in the near future, true peace remains a distant prospect.
In a recent interview with Ukrinform, Budanov highlighted that Russia’s strategy of applying pressure on Ukraine while offering enticing deals to other parties is nothing new and will likely continue. However, he made a clear distinction between a ceasefire and peace, calling the former achievable, but the latter far more complicated.
“Reaching a ceasefire quickly is, in my opinion, quite realistic. Achieving peace, however, is not,” he explained, noting that Russia is currently more focused on pausing the conflict. The financial strain of the war is beginning to take its toll, and Budanov believes that if Russia does not pull back by 2026, it will forfeit its aspirations for global leadership, leaving only regional influence, a scenario they would find deeply unsatisfactory.
Russia is also grappling with significant internal issues, including ethnic, religious, and technological challenges. However, Budanov believes these alone will not destabilise the country entirely. What Russia truly lacks is strong leadership, which could change the course of events overnight. Until such a leader emerges, he sees no serious threat to the stability of the regime.
Budanov’s outlook is cautious but clear: while a ceasefire may be possible by 2025, peace is still a long way off.
