As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, Russia finds itself embroiled in a grinding conflict on multiple fronts, suffering heavy losses as it struggles to hold ground both in Ukraine and within its own borders. Despite its numerical superiority, the Russian military remains locked in a brutal battle of attrition, trading soldiers for territory in a slow and costly advance, while Ukrainian forces continue to resist fiercely.
The Kursk Salient: A Thorn in Russia’s Side
In August 2024, Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, establishing a salient deep within Russian territory. The move was intended to force Moscow to divert troops from Ukraine’s frontlines, a strategy that has largely succeeded. The Kremlin has deployed over 50,000 troops to contain the Ukrainian presence in Kursk, including North Korean reinforcements who suffered devastating losses. Intelligence reports suggest that nearly 4,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded in the fighting.
Despite the ongoing battle in Kursk, the Russian military remains focused on its broader campaign inside Ukraine, particularly in the Donbas region. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently claimed that the 810th Brigade had pushed into Ukraine’s Sumy region from Kursk, though independent observers, including the British Ministry of Defence, have disputed this, suggesting that Ukrainian forces still control significant areas within Kursk.
Russia’s Push in Donbas and Measured Gains
While Kursk remains a contested battleground, Russia has prioritised its offensives in Donetsk Oblast, a key part of the wider Donbas region alongside Luhansk. The most intense fighting is taking place in and around the strategic cities of Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk, as Russian forces attempt to advance into less urbanised areas further south and northwest of Velyka Novosilka.
The Kremlin’s approach is clear: it is sacrificing manpower to gain territory. With Russian casualties averaging 1,500 troops killed or wounded per day, Moscow’s forces are making incremental gains at an exceptionally high human cost. However, Ukrainian troops remain steadfast. Resistance in Donetsk is particularly strong, as Kyiv understands that losing key logistical hubs could severely impact its ability to launch future counteroffensives. According to the British Ministry of Defence, Russian forces have made minimal progress towards Pokrovsk in recent weeks, with fierce fighting continuing in the contested town of Pishchane, just five kilometres southwest of the city.
An Ongoing Battle of Attrition
The war has become a test of endurance, with Russia prioritising territorial expansion over the preservation of its forces. This strategy has resulted in heavy casualties for Moscow, with only incremental progress to show for it. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to mount strong resistance, denying Russian forces the quick victories they seek and holding on to crucial ground.
Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts to negotiate peace, the reality on the battlefield remains grim. With neither side showing signs of backing down, the war in Ukraine rages on, with no definitive resolution in sight.
