Tehran is ramping up its military posture, launching missiles, praising rebel attacks, and unveiling provocative anti-Israel murals, all while quietly signalling it still wants a nuclear deal with the United States.
In the span of just a few days, Iran has backed a missile strike by Yemen’s Houthi rebels near Israel’s main airport, broadcast a fresh ballistic missile test on state television, and lashed out at American officials. Meanwhile, a new mural unveiled by a group linked to the Revolutionary Guard showed Israel overlaid with missile targets shaped like a jambiyya, a traditional Yemeni dagger.
Yet despite this aggressive front, Iranian officials insist they remain open to reviving stalled nuclear talks with the US, following the collapse of a scheduled meeting in Rome last weekend. The message from Tehran? Don’t mistake threats for the end of diplomacy.
Missile Strikes and Mixed Signals
Iranian state media gleefully covered Sunday’s Houthi missile strike near Ben-Gurion International Airport, despite official claims from Tehran that the attack was the group’s “independent decision”. The Foreign Ministry praised the Houthis’ “solidarity with the Palestinians” while defending their right to retaliate against American aggression.
While Iran’s direct control over the Houthi movement remains debated, Tehran has provided weapons and support throughout Yemen’s decade-long conflict, in clear violation of a United Nations arms embargo.
Meanwhile, Iranian Defence Minister General Aziz Nasirzadeh publicly rebuked US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth for warning Iran would “pay the CONSEQUENCE” for supporting the rebels.
“I advise the American threatening officials, especially the newcomer defence minister, to read the history of Iran in the recent four decades,” he said. “They should not speak to Iran using the language of threats.”
At the same time, Iran has chosen not to retaliate for Israeli airstrikes that targeted its missile and air defence infrastructure back in October, raising questions about how far Tehran is willing to escalate.
Iran’s Regional Influence Under Pressure
These developments come as Iran’s regional standing is increasingly under strain. The 7 October 2023 attack by Hamas, which left 1,200 Israelis dead and 250 taken hostage, triggered a massive and ongoing military response from Israel, with more than 52,000 Palestinians reported killed in Gaza, according to local health officials. These figures include both combatants and civilians, although the distinction is not made in official reporting.
In the wake of this war, Iran’s traditional allies have been weakened. Hezbollah and Hamas are under sustained Israeli assault, while long-time Syrian ally President Bashar al-Assad was toppled in December after over five decades of dynastic rule.
That leaves Yemen’s Houthis as Iran’s last active proxy, and they, too, are now facing intensified US-led strikes.
The Nuclear Deal Dilemma
Despite the sabre-rattling, Iran has not abandoned hopes of securing a new nuclear agreement. Tehran continues to push for a deal that would see economic sanctions lifted in exchange for limits on its uranium enrichment programme.
The potential for resumed talks has already boosted Iran’s struggling currency, the rial, which had previously fallen to over 1 million to the dollar, has strengthened to 840,000.
But any agreement remains distant. The Trump administration has set tough conditions, including a demand that Iran abandon all uranium enrichment, a proposal repeatedly rejected by Tehran.
Former US President Donald Trump reportedly sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in March, setting a two-month deadline for progress. The clock is now ticking, with little sign of breakthrough.
In a bid to keep diplomatic channels open, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travelled to Islamabad to meet his Pakistani counterpart. However, efforts to engage Europe hit a wall. EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas criticised Tehran’s military support for Russia and raised concerns over detained EU citizens and ongoing human rights abuses.
“I called on Iran to stop military support to Russia and raised concerns over detained EU citizens and human rights,” Kallas said on social media platform X. “EU–Iran ties hinge on progress in all areas.”
Walking a Dangerous Line
Iran’s current strategy, escalating tensions while calling for diplomacy, reflects both desperation and calculation. Its regional clout is diminished, its economy is battered, and the pressure from Washington and Tel Aviv is only growing.
Whether Tehran’s double-edged approach will bring relief or spark further conflict remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the Islamic Republic is not backing down, on missiles, influence, or the bargaining table.
