As Donald Trump inches closer to returning to the White House, Iran has ramped up its military exercises, signalling a sharp response to rising regional tensions. The country is conducting nearly double the number of military drills compared to previous years, underscoring concerns over Trump’s hardline stance and its potential impact on the already volatile Middle East.
According to the Financial Times, Iran has initiated around 30 land, air, and maritime exercises across its western and southern provinces, with operations scheduled to run through mid-March. These drills are a joint effort between Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular Iranian army, showcasing both increased cooperation and military expansion.
The drills, described by IRGC spokesman Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini, are “significantly larger in scope and sophistication,” incorporating new weaponry and enhanced participation from a variety of brigades. The IRGC spokesperson explained that these increased exercises were “in response to the evolving threat landscape,” hinting at the heightened tensions and uncertainties that accompany Trump’s imminent return to power.
The timing of these exercises is not coincidental. With Trump’s inauguration set for 20 January, Iran appears to be preparing for a potential resurgence of the “maximum pressure” campaign that defined much of Trump’s first term. The former president had imposed heavy sanctions on Tehran, pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPA), and pursued a confrontational approach, all of which hit Iran’s economy hard. Trump’s team has already suggested that it intends to revive this aggressive stance, adding fuel to Iran’s sense of urgency.
The military exercises are focused around key strategic areas, such as the Natanz nuclear facility and the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway that handles a third of the world’s oil. Iran has previously indicated that it could limit the flow of oil through the Strait as a response to sanctions, making this a critical focus of their military drills.
This increased military activity follows a period of significant setbacks for Iran’s regional influence. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and recent aggressive actions from Israel have disrupted Iran’s ability to support key allies, including Hezbollah. Furthermore, Iran has faced direct exchanges of fire with Israeli forces for the first time, escalating the already fragile relations.
Despite these challenges, Brigadier General Naeini dismissed any claims that Iran is weakened. He countered that these “false perceptions” were a misinterpretation of the situation, arguing that Iran remains prepared for large-scale conflicts. “Iran has been preparing for complex, large-scale conflicts and remains confident in its deterrent capabilities,” he declared.
The culmination of these exercises will be a display of force, with 100,000 members of the Revolutionary Guard Corps’ voluntary Basij militia marching through Tehran in a show of military strength. However, Iran continues to maintain a defensive posture, with Naeini asserting that the country will not initiate conflict but will “respond decisively to any threats” in the region.
As tensions continue to build, the looming question is how the United States under Trump’s leadership will respond to this display of force. With both countries preparing for a potentially confrontational relationship, the coming months could prove pivotal for the future of Middle Eastern stability.
