Europe is on high alert after fresh intelligence reports suggested that the Kremlin is openly discussing possible military attacks on NATO countries, a move that, if true, could mark the most dangerous escalation since the Cold War.
EU Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius sounded the alarm, saying the warnings from Western intelligence “must be treated with utmost seriousness.” The message is simple but stark: Europe can no longer afford to underestimate Moscow’s intentions.
“A Wake-Up Call for the West”
Kubilius revealed that intelligence assessments show the Kremlin is actively exploring scenarios for direct strikes against NATO allies. German intelligence services have issued similar warnings, confirming that such conversations are taking place at high levels within Russia’s military and political circles.
“This should be a wake-up call for Europe,” Kubilius warned. “Defence preparedness must now become a top priority.”
A Countdown to Global Conflict?
His comments echo earlier concerns raised by General Alexus Grynkewich, commander of US Army Europe and NATO Allied Forces. Back in 2025, Grynkewich warned that the West might have just 18 months to prepare for a potential global conflict involving Russia and China.
He cautioned that both authoritarian powers could coordinate military action by 2027, creating what he described as an “unprecedented challenge” to Western security.
Russia’s Relentless Rearmament
Despite catastrophic losses in Ukraine, Kubilius noted, Russia hasn’t slowed down. Instead, it’s expanded weapons production and adapted its technology for the long game.
“Putin expected to be in Kyiv within three days,” Kubilius said. “Instead, the war evolved, and Russia evolved with it.”
According to Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, Moscow has already approved a sweeping rearmament and modernisation plan stretching to 2037. The first stage alone, running until 2030, is expected to cost around $1.2 trillion, making it the largest weapons upgrade programme since the 1980s.
Budanov warned that, if completed, the initiative would dramatically expand Russia’s ability to wage war beyond Ukraine’s borders.
“Ukraine Is the Laboratory of Modern Defence”
For Kubilius, the lesson is clear: Europe must learn from Ukraine’s adaptability.
He described Ukraine as a “laboratory of modern defence”, praising its battlefield innovation, from drone technology to flexible, startup-style weapons production. “Ukrainians operate without bureaucracy,” he said. “Their drone manufacturers work like independent battalions, producing, testing, and improving their own systems right on the front line.”
And Ukraine isn’t keeping its secrets to itself. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already offered to share Kyiv’s hard-earned expertise, with Poland and Denmark moving to integrate Ukrainian counter-drone systems into their own defences.
The Drone Threat at Europe’s Doorstep
Kubilius’s warning comes as drone incursions across Europe intensify. In recent months, Poland, Denmark, Norway, Romania, and the Baltic states have all reported sightings of unidentified UAVs breaching their airspace. Many still lack the capability to counter such attacks effectively.
“These incidents show how vulnerable we still are,” Kubilius said. “We must move faster, smarter, and together.”
Europe’s Moment of Decision
As Russia doubled down on its long-term war machine, Kubilius urged Europe to do the same, but with innovation, not imitation.
“We must learn flexibility, innovation, and speed from the Ukrainians,” he concluded. “They’re showing us what modern defence looks like, and what it will take to withstand what comes next.”
