A new analysis from Global Witness has revealed that under a controversial draft deal proposed by US President Donald Trump, the United States could seize half of Ukraine’s projected $706 billion in oil and gas revenues, amounting to a staggering $353 billion.
The deal, which is said to give the US control over Ukraine’s untapped natural resources, would see the US claim 50% of the revenues from new oil, gas, and mining projects in Ukraine, as well as from any new infrastructure such as pipelines, roads, and railways built to support the industry. The terms of the deal would apply both now and into the future.
According to Rystad Energy data, Ukraine’s untapped reserves of oil and gas are expected to generate $706 billion over their lifetime. Under the Trump deal, that means $353 billion of these vital funds would be at risk of being siphoned off by the US.
Environmental groups are speaking out against the proposal, warning that further exploiting Ukraine’s fossil fuel resources to fund reconstruction efforts would be disastrous for the environment. Campaigners are calling for a green reconstruction plan for Ukraine, one that prioritises renewable energy over fossil fuels, in order to help rebuild the war-torn country in a sustainable way.
Emily Iona Stewart, head of policy and EU relations at Global Witness, criticised the deal, saying: “Trump’s new minerals deal is a shameful case of exploiting a vulnerable country to pillage its resources. With $353 billion of Ukraine’s oil and gas money at stake, this is neo-colonialism laid bare.”
Stewart continued: “Exploitation has always been at the heart of oil and gas extraction, and we are now seeing this repeated in the scramble for critical minerals. Ukraine should be able to focus on a green reconstruction, not fighting the world’s richest country to keep its own resources while battling Russia on the front lines.”
Trump’s Plan: A Shocking Takeover of Ukraine’s Resources
Trump’s plan would give the US the right to control all of Ukraine’s untapped resource deposits, including minerals, oil, and gas, and any new infrastructure necessary to extract or transport these resources. Under the deal, Ukraine would be required to pay 50% of the revenues from new resource projects into a joint US-Ukraine “Reconstruction Investment Fund.”
However, the US would have significant control over this fund, with three of the five board members appointed by the US, giving Washington the majority decision-making power. The first $100 billion from Ukraine’s resources would be seized by the US as a payment for “war debt,” which is more than half the size of Ukraine’s entire economy in 2023. After that, Ukraine would be entitled to just 50% of the fund’s income.
The deal has sparked outrage, with critics calling it “expropriation” and “robbery.” Trump’s “drill baby drill” agenda, which has long championed the expansion of fossil fuel extraction, would be given a green light to access Ukraine’s substantial oil and gas reserves. These resources had previously attracted major investments from companies like ExxonMobil before Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014.
Trump’s proposal would give the US the first right of refusal on all future resource projects in Ukraine, potentially opening the door for US drilling companies to exploit Ukraine’s natural resources.
As Ukraine battles the ongoing Russian invasion, the proposed deal is raising serious concerns about the country’s sovereignty and its future economic stability. While the US stands to gain significantly from the resources, critics argue that Ukraine’s recovery should not come at the cost of its natural heritage or its ability to pursue a more sustainable, green future.
