As the ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues, defence ministers from Estonia and Lithuania are sounding the alarm over the potential consequences of a ceasefire, fearing it could significantly raise the security threat to NATO’s eastern flank. A pause in fighting, they warn, would allow Russia to rapidly rearm and redeploy its troops, potentially doubling the number of forces stationed near Finland and the Baltic states.
Hanno Pevkur, Estonia’s defence minister, made it clear that a ceasefire would present Moscow with a prime opportunity to quickly reposition its military assets, heightening tensions in an already volatile region. “That means also the threat level will increase significantly very quickly,” Pevkur told the Financial Times.
Lithuania’s defence minister, Dovilė Šakalienė, echoed these concerns during a visit to London, stating that Russia’s ambitions go far beyond Ukraine. “They already have a huge, battlefield-trained army, which is going to get even bigger,” she warned. The fear is that a halt to the fighting would allow Russia to fulfil its 2022 plans of raising a massive 1.5 million-strong army, which would include the creation of an entirely new army corps in the north, directly threatening the security of NATO members in Northern Europe.
While the Trump administration continues its efforts to broker peace talks, the prospect of an enduring ceasefire remains distant. According to reports, the halt in hostilities could allow Moscow to fulfil long-term military objectives, including significantly bolstering its forces near NATO’s borders. Pevkur estimates that around half of the 600,000 Russian soldiers currently deployed in Ukraine could be redeployed to the north after any peace deal. He underscored that many of these soldiers would not be returning to civilian life, as wages in the military are far higher than those in other sectors.
The Baltic ministers also expressed concern about NATO’s role in policing a potential peace agreement, with Pevkur warning that a shift in NATO’s focus towards Ukraine could leave the Baltic states vulnerable. “We cannot fall into the trap that our forces are somehow fixed in Ukraine,” he stressed. “Then we will have risks at our border.”
With NATO’s eastern security at stake, the Baltic states’ warning highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics at play as global powers navigate the fraught path toward peace.
