In a stark address on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Prime Minister Keir Starmer made it clear: Vladimir Putin does not hold all the cards. In his video-call speech to a summit in Kyiv, Starmer announced a further package of UK assistance to Ukraine, as well as additional sanctions aimed at tightening the pressure on Russia’s president to come to the negotiating table.
Starmer’s words strike at the heart of the conflict. He noted:
“Russia does not hold all of the cards in this war because the Ukrainians have the courage to defend their country, because Russia’s economy is in trouble and because they have now lost the best of their land forces and their Black Sea fleet in this pointless invasion. So we must increase the pressure even further to deliver an enduring peace, not just a pause in the fighting.”
And he’s right. The current situation paints a grim picture for Ukraine and Europe as a whole. The fear of what might happen should Donald Trump get his way is palpable, with his camp appearing to treat the war as a lost cause for Ukraine, arguing that Kyiv should simply accept whatever terms Russia offers. But Starmer’s perspective provides a much-needed counterbalance.
Russia’s Precarious Position
Despite the gloomy outlook in some quarters, Russia’s situation is anything but stable. In fact, it is increasingly precarious. The Kremlin needs the war to end, not only for political reasons but also for its own military and economic survival. In the medium term, Europe can defend itself without relying on the US, and Russia’s capacity to maintain the war effort is dwindling rapidly.
The current levels of Russian mobilisation may look impressive on paper, but they are unlikely to sustain the intensity of fighting for much longer. Russia is already running low on both manpower and equipment. Its economy is struggling under the weight of high inflation, and military production is facing serious bottlenecks. For example, Russia’s artillery production, currently estimated at around 250,000 shells per month, is being outpaced by its firing rate of 300,000 shells per month. Even more alarming, Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on foreign assistance, with North Korea supplying a staggering 60% of the artillery and mortar shells used by Russia in the last three months.
The issue doesn’t stop there. Russia’s recruitment efforts are also faltering. Its target of 36,000 recruits per month is falling short, especially with casualty rates running at 40,000-50,000 soldiers per month. By the end of 2023, Russia had already exhausted its prison recruitment pool, and it is now turning to increasingly desperate measures, including allowing people with health issues to join the ranks.
The Strain on Russia’s Economy
On the economic front, Russia is feeling the pinch. With inflation running high, the Kremlin is scraping by with modest growth. Much of the funding for its war efforts has come from running down reserves, but these are set to run dry by autumn 2025. The situation is not sustainable, and it’s clear that Russia needs the war to pause, if not end entirely.
Despite its efforts to project a facade of economic prosperity, the truth is that Russia’s economy is struggling. If the EU were to step in and replace the US support for Ukraine, the war could continue at a similar pace, slowly depleting Russia’s military and economic power. The Russian military economy could buckle under the pressure, and even if it doesn’t, it would still take years for Russia to recover and rearm, by which point it will face an EU that has far outpaced it in production capacity.
Europe Can Defend Itself
Some fear that US withdrawal from Europe would leave the continent vulnerable, but this doesn’t have to be the case. In fact, the EU has the power to defend itself. The growing strength of the EU economy and its population are significantly larger than Russia’s, meaning it could easily outproduce Russia in the event of a long-term war. Nato’s Article 5, which guarantees mutual defence, is often seen as a relic of the past, but it’s crucial to remember that the EU has the capability to protect its own interests.
The EU’s Moment of Truth
As we look ahead to the next few years, Europe is at a crossroads. The likely future of Nato, and the EU’s ability to stand alone in the face of aggression, will soon be tested. Will Europe choose to protect its own security, or will it rely on external powers for its defence? The next few years will tell.
