It was the phone call that sent shockwaves through Europe. Out of the blue, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced he’d spent 90 minutes on the phone with Vladimir Putin. The conversation, he claimed, was ‘highly productive’, so much so that both sides had agreed to launch immediate negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. There was just one problem: Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, wasn’t invited to the conversation. In fact, he hadn’t even been informed.
For European leaders, the news was a gut punch. As they gathered in Brussels for a meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, preparing for the Munich Security Conference that weekend, they suddenly found themselves relegated to the sidelines. If Zelenskyy was out of the loop, Europe was practically in another solar system.
A Scramble for Relevance
Faced with this diplomatic curveball, Europe scrambled to respond. French President Emmanuel Macron hastily convened a meeting in Paris, inviting the leaders of the UK, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, and Denmark, along with top NATO and EU officials. The focus? European security, and, unexpectedly, the idea of deploying a peacekeeping force to Ukraine.
Now, let’s pause for a second. This discussion took place before American and Russian negotiators had even met for the first time in Saudi Arabia. The eagerness of European leaders to discuss enforcing a settlement that had not yet been reached felt, at best, premature. At worst? Completely detached from reality.
Britain’s Role: Starmer Steps Forward
UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer wasted no time throwing his hat into the ring. Before even stepping foot in Paris, he wrote in The Daily Telegraph that Britain would be open to sending troops to Ukraine as part of a multinational peacekeeping force, a force that Zelenskyy suggested would need to be between 100,000 and 150,000 strong.
Macron had signalled his willingness to contribute months ago, but other European leaders were less keen. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk flatly refused to send troops, while Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed the entire conversation as ‘completely premature’ and ‘highly inappropriate.’ He then left the summit early, undoubtedly weighed down by the knowledge that his struggling coalition was likely to face defeat in upcoming elections.
Can the UK Deliver?
One UK newspaper floated the idea that Britain could provide 20,000 troops. A bold claim, but one that doesn’t hold up under scrutiny. The British Army currently has just 74,612 regular personnel. Realistically, once other commitments are factored in, Britain would struggle to send more than a single brigade of 4,000–5,000 troops.
When boots on the ground seemed unlikely, another idea emerged: the Royal Air Force could lead an ‘air policing’ mission, with Typhoon FGR4 jets on high alert for any violations of a peace deal. Again, the numbers don’t quite stack up. The RAF has around 100 Typhoons, but most are already tied up defending UK airspace from bases at RAF Coningsby and RAF Lossiemouth.
The Elephant in the Room: Russia’s Stance
Even if the logistical challenges were resolved, there’s one major sticking point, Russia. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has already dismissed the idea of a NATO-led peacekeeping force as ‘completely unacceptable.’ And let’s not forget: while European leaders scramble to find a role for themselves, Trump has made his position clear. He wants a peace deal by Easter, 20 April, a rare date when both Western and Eastern Orthodox churches celebrate simultaneously. And the signs suggest he’s willing to make serious concessions to Moscow to get it.
A Waiting Game
So, where does that leave Europe? At the moment, their talk of peacekeeping looks more like a case of diplomatic busywork than a viable strategy. Trump, who now echoes Kremlin talking points almost verbatim, sees an opportunity to strike a deal with Putin on his own terms. He doesn’t need European leaders to do it, and they know it.
As for Starmer, his upcoming trip to Washington could offer more clarity. Perhaps his talk of troops and air patrols is a strategic offering to Trump. But for now, European leaders are moving pieces around an imaginary chessboard, while the real game unfolds elsewhere.
