Britain’s next-generation fighter jet isn’t just about cutting-edge technology, it’s about keeping pace in an increasingly dangerous world.
Experts have warned that the UK’s Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) must be fully funded and strategically focused if Britain is to face the growing military challenge posed by deepening cooperation between Russia and China.
Dr Sophy Antrobus of King’s College London told the House of Lords that Britain has no credible alternative to international fighter partnerships.
“If we didn’t have the F-35 programme, we wouldn’t have a fifth-generation aircraft, end of,” she told the International Relations and Defence Committee. “And if we didn’t have that fifth-generation capability, we wouldn’t be learning the vital lessons helping us build the sixth-generation aircraft under GCAP.”
She warned that pulling out of such programmes would relegate Britain to a lower tier within NATO, leaving the nation with reduced global influence. “There is no equivalent alternative,” she said firmly. “We either stay fully engaged, or we accept being sidelined.”
Dr Justin Bronk from the Royal United Services Institute echoed her concerns, describing the next decade as “an acute period of risk.” Despite its heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia is rebuilding its military strength, and that, combined with China’s growing influence, poses a serious test for Europe’s defences.
Bronk said European states urgently need to close critical gaps in ammunition and airpower to avoid becoming over-reliant on the United States in any future crisis.
He also stressed that GCAP’s success will depend on long-term investment and a firm political commitment.
“You need to do this programme properly,” he said. “We’re talking about £80 to £100 billion between the three partner nations by 2030.”
While the price tag is steep, Bronk added that much of that value would return to the UK economy through domestic industry and high-skilled jobs.
Japan, he noted, is expected to lead on GCAP’s most advanced systems because of its proximity to China. “The counter-air capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army today are almost incomparably greater than Russia’s,” he warned, and those Chinese technologies could soon be shared with Moscow.
“By the 2030s and 2040s, when Tempest enters service, we must expect to be facing Russians carrying Chinese weapons, Chinese sensors, and probably Chinese tactics and training,” he added.
Bronk went further, warning that a major conflict involving either Russia or China could quickly draw in the other.
“If China and the United States clash over Taiwan, the US will pull capability out of Europe,” he explained. “China could then pressure Russia to create trouble in Eastern Europe to divide attention. Equally, if Russia and NATO go to war, Beijing might see its best chance to move on Taiwan.”
His conclusion was blunt: the two threats are now intertwined, and the UK must treat GCAP, along with wider European rearmament, as a strategic priority to deter aggression in both theatres.
