We are already witnessing the dawn of the world’s first AI-powered war, and it is not just about who has the best autonomous weapons. The real game-changer? Who can leverage AI to make decisions faster than their adversary.
In February 2024, Google made headlines by officially dropping its commitment not to develop AI for weapons, signalling a monumental shift. The decision reflects a growing recognition from private companies that AI will be crucial in military applications. This could accelerate the U.S.’s own AI weapons programmes, but there’s a catch. While America is racing to catch up, China seems to be pulling ahead in the AI arms race.
On 5 March, China escalated tensions with the U.S. in response to tariffs, announcing that it was prepared to engage in “any other type of war”, a phrase that hints at a new kind of conflict, one that extends far beyond traditional battlefields.
AI as a Key Strategic Advantage
China’s investments in AI weapon systems are not a new development. A 2020 Brookings Institution report revealed China had been quietly advancing AI military technology for years. Analysts, at the time, could only speculate about the full scope of China’s ambitions. Yet, National Security News reported in June 2024 that China might deploy fully autonomous AI weapons on the battlefield within the next two years.
Both the U.S. and China have been testing AI-powered combat systems, but China has led in several significant developments. For example, the U.S. Army deployed an armed “robot dog” to the Middle East for testing in October 2024. This Quadrupedal-Unmanned Ground Vehicle (Q-UGV), equipped with AI-powered targeting, was a major leap forward for the U.S. military. But just months earlier, China had showcased the same technology at their Golden Dragon joint military drills in Cambodia, putting the U.S. behind.
Both countries have other autonomous systems in development, including AI-powered machine guns. The U.S.’s “Bullfrog”, developed by Allen Control Systems, uses AI to shoot down drones, but its battlefield testing has been limited compared to China’s rapidly expanding capabilities.
AI: Beyond Autonomous Weapons
The arms race between China and America is not just about who has the best autonomous weapons. It’s about who can harness AI to make decisions faster, and that’s where China is excelling.
According to a 2023 report from the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), China’s military views AI as the key to processing, analysing, and exploiting information at speeds that human decision-makers simply can’t match. Jacob Stokes, a Senior Fellow at CNAS, emphasised the importance of using AI to identify vulnerabilities, process massive data sets, and target the U.S. quickly. In a fast-paced conflict, this means that AI could turn the tide by allowing China to act with unparalleled speed.
Russia’s Approach
Meanwhile, Russia, an ally of China, is pursuing a different AI strategy. Russia’s military focuses on disabling adversary command-and-control systems through AI-driven code-breaking technologies. These highly encrypted computer systems could be cracked or disrupted using AI, causing military equipment to malfunction or even go offline entirely.
The U.S. Struggles to Keep Pace
While the U.S. remains a leader in AI research, its reliance on private firms such as Google, OpenAI, and Palantir has slowed its integration of AI into military systems. Unlike China, where military technology is rapidly deployed without significant bureaucratic hurdles, the U.S. military’s partnerships with private tech firms must navigate financial and public relations concerns. As a result, American technological innovation often faces delays, and the U.S. struggles to deploy new technologies as quickly as its adversaries.
One example of the U.S. Air Force pushing for faster AI integration is the “Air Force’s Artificial Intelligence and the Future of the United States Air Force” initiative. This initiative seeks to develop an AI-powered cognitive engine capable of speeding up decision-making in combat scenarios. However, even this project faces obstacles due to the complex bureaucratic environment in the U.S.
AI Warfare: The Unsettling Future
The future of autonomous weapons systems has already seen its share of unsettling developments. In March 2020, a Turkish-made Kargu-2 drone in Libya killed a human being without any human operator input. This incident reignited global concerns over the lack of oversight in AI-powered weapons and the potential consequences of autonomous attacks.
As global superpowers continue to develop and deploy AI-driven combat technologies, we face a new era of warfare, one that is difficult to define, detect, and counter. China’s “any other type of war” statement illustrates the growing awareness that AI warfare will likely take place in non-traditional domains, ranging from cyber warfare to economic pressure tactics, making it harder to pinpoint where a conflict might escalate.
Make no mistake, we are already in the world’s first AI war. It’s not just a race for better drones or automated weapons, it’s a battle of information, decision-making, and battlefield intelligence. AI will not only change how we fight wars; it will redefine how wars are won.
