The much-anticipated Strategic Defence Review (SDR) is set to be published in the near future, with a focus on assessing the UK’s security threats and determining how the Armed Forces must adapt to address them. Commissioned by the Labour Government shortly after taking office in July 2024, this review marks the first time an independent panel of experts has conducted such an examination in British history.
Defence Secretary John Healey described the review as a “fresh look” at the challenges facing the UK, following concerns over a stretched Armed Forces, procurement inefficiencies, and dwindling morale. Historically, successive governments have conducted defence reviews every decade since the Second World War to respond to shifting global threats and military needs.
The current Labour Government has committed to increasing defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, with the Treasury expected to outline the plan to achieve this target in the coming months as part of a broader spending review.
Who Is Leading the Review?
Unlike previous government-led reviews, this SDR is being conducted by an independent panel of experts, led by:
- Lord Robertson, former Defence Secretary and NATO Secretary General.
- Dr. Fiona Hill, former senior adviser on European and Russian affairs to the US government.
- General Sir Richard Barrons, former commander of Joint Forces Command.
The review is expected to present its findings by the spring of 2025.
Why Is the Review Necessary?
Speaking at the launch of the SDR in July 2024, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer stressed the need for the UK to prepare for an increasingly “dangerous and volatile world.” Defence Secretary John Healey underscored the growing instability, referencing Russia’s war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and the rise of hybrid warfare tactics.
The Defence Select Committee has raised concerns that the Armed Forces are ill-prepared for sustained warfighting. The British Army is at its smallest size since the Napoleonic Wars, recruitment issues persist, and the Royal Navy faces a shortage of ships despite investments in aircraft carriers. Additionally, there are concerns about the UK’s nuclear deterrent, with Vanguard-class submarines, which provide the Continuous At Sea Deterrent (CASD), overdue for replacement by new Dreadnought-class submarines.
What Will the Review Focus On?
The Ministry of Defence (MOD) has outlined several key priorities for the review, ensuring it remains focused on core national security issues, including:
- Nato-first defence policy, reaffirming NATO as the cornerstone of UK security.
- Nuclear deterrence, preserving the UK’s strategic nuclear capability.
- Reinforcing homeland security, exploring ways to strengthen national resilience.
- Ongoing support for Ukraine, ensuring continued military and financial assistance.
- Personnel priorities, examining the role of Armed Forces personnel in the broader defence strategy.
- Global commitments, maintaining strategic partnerships in regions like the Indo-Pacific, Gulf, and Middle East.
- AUKUS agreement, strengthening cooperation with the US and Australia, particularly in new submarines and advanced technologies.
The review will assess whether the UK’s current and planned military capabilities align with these priorities and could recommend shifting resources to key areas.
Will There Be Changes to Military Capabilities?
On November 20, 2024, Defence Secretary John Healey announced the removal of six outdated military capabilities, including helicopters, ships, and drones, which will no longer be in service. These cuts, backed by military chiefs, were made in consultation with those leading the SDR.
The SDR will also explore how to streamline defence spending while improving the military’s warfighting readiness, aiming for more efficiency in light of financial constraints.
Challenges Ahead
The SDR comes at a time when several European countries, particularly those near Russia, are significantly increasing their defence budgets. Nations such as Poland and the Baltic states are spending closer to 3% or even 4% of GDP on defence. Meanwhile, other EU NATO members, such as Spain and Italy, are falling short of the 2% target set more than a decade ago.
The UK faces the challenge of maintaining its global commitments, including:
- Providing military aid to Ukraine.
- Participating in naval operations in the Red Sea alongside the US to counter Houthi rebel attacks.
- Maintaining a military presence in the Indo-Pacific as part of the AUKUS partnership.
Critics have questioned whether the UK can afford such an extensive global military presence while dealing with domestic budgetary constraints and force reductions.
What Happens Next?
The call for evidence for the SDR closed in September 2024, with input from military personnel, MPs, industry experts, and the public. The review’s findings are expected to be released in the first half of 2025.
The key challenge facing the review will be balancing the financial realities with the military needs, ensuring that the UK remains a credible and capable defence force in an increasingly volatile world.
