Have you ever wondered why Defence Intelligence uses terms like “unlikely” or “realistic possibility” when assessing Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine?
One of the most notable instances of Defence Intelligence providing critical insight was when it tweeted about President Putin’s invasion plan a full week before Russian forces entered Ukraine. Since then, Defence Intelligence has continued to publish regular intelligence updates on Twitter, giving the public and officials a clearer view of the conflict. These updates are crafted using a very specific language, carefully designed to communicate the probability of events and outcomes.
The Language of Intelligence Assessments
Intelligence assessments, in their simplest form, provide two things: insight into what has already occurred and foresight into what may happen next. Analysts work with incomplete information, piecing together intelligence from multiple sources. Given the uncertainty involved, Defence Intelligence uses a shared vocabulary that allows both analysts and their audience to understand the likelihood of an event happening or an outcome being correct.
A Yardstick for Uncertainty
To communicate probability effectively, Defence Intelligence developed a “yardstick” in the early 2000s. This yardstick splits the probability scale into seven distinct ranges, each corresponding to a term that helps assessors communicate their level of certainty. For example, words like “likely” and “highly probable” are assigned to the higher probability ranges, while terms such as “unlikely” and “realistic possibility” are used for less certain outcomes.
This system was based on academic research, which ensured that each term corresponds to the way the average person understands probability. The yardstick has been updated over time and is now in use across the entire UK intelligence community, allowing government officials to understand the likelihood of specific events occurring and aiding clarity in decision-making.
Why It Matters
Defence Intelligence plays a crucial role within Strategic Command, providing key intelligence to decision-makers in the Ministry of Defence, the armed forces, and other areas of government. Its assessments guide important decisions on policy, military operations, and defence research, as well as helping to inform equipment programmes. Through this careful and structured approach to communicating probability, Defence Intelligence ensures that key stakeholders have a clear understanding of the situation, enabling more informed decisions in critical moments.
