After two years of relentless conflict that has left 68,000 Palestinians and more than 1,200 Israelis dead, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a Phase One ceasefire, marking what could be the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the war began.
The deal, the first step in a 20-point peace plan led by US President Donald Trump and backed by key Arab powers, will see Israel halt its military operations in Gaza while Hamas releases the remaining 20 Israeli hostages still believed to be alive.
A fragile but hopeful pause
Speaking to The Conversation, Middle East analyst Professor Scott Lucas of University College Dublin said this agreement mirrors the 60-day ceasefire at the start of 2025, but with one key difference: Hamas has agreed to release all remaining hostages and return recoverable bodies in exchange for an unconfirmed number of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.
“This time, Hamas is giving up its main leverage, the hostages, which could change the dynamic entirely,” Lucas explained. “But key questions remain around military withdrawal, aid access, and who governs Gaza once the guns fall silent.”
The ceasefire is seen as a pause in fighting, not yet a final settlement. Much depends on whether Israel’s far-right ministers, who have repeatedly rejected any deal short of Hamas’s total defeat, will support further stages of the agreement.
Disarmament and governance among key challenges
Under discussion are several contentious points:
- Israel’s demand for Hamas to fully disarm and expel senior officials;
- Hamas’s refusal to accept forced removals or the loss of all its “defensive” weapons;
- The creation of an international stabilisation force to oversee Gaza, a proposal still more ideal than implementation.
Trump has declared himself chair of the international board overseeing the Strip, but critics note the lack of Palestinian representation in the current plan. Italy has already offered to contribute troops, while questions remain over which nations will provide personnel and funding.
Plans for day-to-day governance in Gaza are equally uncertain. Trump’s plan mentions Palestinian technocrats, but Hamas will be excluded and Israel is likely to veto any role for the Palestinian Authority, at least in the short term. The potential release of long-imprisoned Palestinian figures, including Marwan Barghouti, is also unconfirmed.
Arab states play key role behind the scenes
While Washington has dominated headlines, the real diplomatic heavy lifting came from Qatar and Egypt, both of whom brokered the agreement following weeks of intense negotiations in Cairo. Other Arab nations, including Turkey and Saudi Arabia, were reportedly instrumental in convincing Hamas to accept Trump’s plan in principle.
Their continued involvement will be critical to advancing later stages of the peace roadmap, particularly if Trump’s administration reverts to its earlier policy of offering Israel a “blank cheque” for military operations.
Humanitarian needs remain dire
For civilians in Gaza, the priority is survival. With Israel’s bombardment now paused, aid agencies are preparing to deliver urgent humanitarian relief, including food, medicine, and water. Much of Gaza remains in ruins after two years of bombardment that levelled Rafah, flattened Gaza City, and destroyed hospitals, schools, and infrastructure.
“The immediate issue is survival,” Lucas said. “But recovery must focus on civilians, not just reconstruction profits or political gain.”
Critics have warned against Trump’s reported ambitions to turn post-war Gaza into a “Riviera of the Middle East”, arguing that humanitarian recovery, not investment schemes, must take priority.
A peace deal, or just a pause?
While some have framed the deal as a triumph for Trump’s diplomacy, Lucas cautioned against premature celebration.
“Sometimes good things happen from cynical motives,” he said. “If this saves lives, that’s welcome, but it needs to be the start of something lasting, not a momentary political win.”
Long-term peace, he argued, must include a two-state solution, a vision still opposed by both Netanyahu’s government and Trump’s administration.
“For now, celebrate Phase One on behalf of the hostages and civilians,” Lucas said. “But we need clarity on what comes next, Phase Two, Phase Three, and beyond.”
