A newly released report has raised serious alarm in Washington over the scale and speed of China’s growing shipbuilding dominance, exposing a deepening threat to US naval supremacy that military analysts warn could reshape the global balance of power.
According to researchers at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China’s shipyards are now outproducing the United States by a staggering margin, with wide-ranging consequences for both military readiness and global maritime security.
The report reveals that China currently commands 50% of the global commercial shipbuilding market, compared to a meagre 0.1% share held by the US. One state-owned Chinese shipbuilder alone produced approximately 250 ships last year, more total tonnage than the entire US shipbuilding industry has delivered since World War II.
Shipbuilding Superpower with Military Reach
The implications stretch far beyond trade. The CSIS warns of a “murky dual-use ecosystem” in China that allows commercial shipyards to rapidly pivot to military production, significantly boosting Beijing’s capacity to field war-ready vessels in any future conflict.
China has been aggressively expanding its naval fleet, including:
- The Type 055 Renhai-class destroyers, equipped with advanced vertical launch missile systems
- The new Fujian aircraft carrier, which uses electromagnetic catapults to launch fighter jets, technology only just being adopted by the US Navy
These developments are already influencing regional power dynamics. Last month, China dispatched a flotilla of three warships around Australia, carrying firepower roughly equal to the entire Australian Navy, in a calculated show of strength.
Beijing has also tested modular landing barges that can form temporary bridges—tactically suited for deploying troops and vehicles onto Taiwan’s shores, should an invasion be ordered.
Industrial Dominance vs. Combat Experience
Despite its impressive output, China’s navy remains largely untested. Critics argue that Beijing lacks the operational experience of its American counterpart, whose forces have engaged in several large-scale naval operations over the past decades.
Nonetheless, analysts are increasingly concerned that sheer production volume could outweigh battlefield sophistication in the event of a prolonged conflict.
“Who cares if we have the best 250 ships in the world’s most modern, equipped navy? China can produce them by the thousand,” said Jacob Shapiro, a geopolitical expert at Cognitive Investments.
“If we end up in a shooting conflict in the South China Sea, and they just roll out thousands of ships while we’re spending billions on each perfect one, it’s not going to work.”
US Navy: Losing Ground by the Numbers
The report outlines a stark numerical shift:
- In the early 2000s, the US Navy had 282 combat ships, compared to 220 in China
- As of now, China’s navy outnumbers the US fleet 400 to 295
- Approximately 70% of China’s fleet was built after 2010, versus just 25% for the US Navy
Worse still, US shipyards are struggling. Aircraft carriers take 11 years to build, while nuclear submarines and destroyers take nine. Labour shortages, procurement delays, and unrealistic cost projections have left America’s shipbuilding in what one official termed a “perpetual state of triage.”
Shelby Oakley, head of government contracting at the US Government Accountability Office, told a Senate committee last month that these persistent delays are “an urgent threat to military readiness.”
Trump’s Response: Tariffs and Talk of a Revival
In response to China’s growing naval and industrial capacity, Donald Trump has pledged to revive US shipbuilding, both for military and commercial use. Speaking last month, he promised to open a White House shipbuilding office and restore lost manufacturing capacity.
“We used to make so many ships,” Trump said. “We don’t make them anymore very much, but we’re going to make them very fast, very soon.”
To support this agenda, the former President has imposed sweeping new tariffs of up to 104% on Chinese imports, prompting retaliatory action from Beijing, including 84% tariffs on US goods.
These moves have rattled global markets and heightened tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
Preparing for a Taiwan Flashpoint
At the heart of military concerns is the potential for a conflict over Taiwan. Some US officials believe Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered his forces to be ready for an invasion by 2027.
Whether or not China intends to launch such an operation, the CSIS report recommends urgent steps:
- Disrupt China’s dual-use shipbuilding model
- Impose docking fees on Chinese-built vessels
- End financial and business relationships with Chinese state-owned shipbuilders
- Invest heavily in domestic and allied shipyard capabilities
While the US still holds an advantage in nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, and technological sophistication, the industrial disparity is widening—and analysts warn that America may not have time on its side.
“This is like World War II in reverse,” said Stephen Biddle, a defence analyst at Columbia University. “Back then, it was America’s industrial base that won the war at sea. Now it’s China with the industrial advantage, and that changes everything.”
