The UK has less than two years to prepare for potential war with Russia, according to a stark warning from a former senior British general.
General Sir Richard Shirreff, the former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe for NATO, has cautioned that the shifting geopolitical landscape, especially with Donald Trump’s stance on NATO and Ukraine, could leave Europe vulnerable to a Russian invasion.
With Trump signalling a withdrawal of US military support for Ukraine and questioning NATO commitments, Shirreff believes Russian President Vladimir Putin may exploit the situation, leading to increased instability in Europe.
Potential Russian Offensive in Europe
Shirreff warns that within two years, Russian tanks could cross the borders into Estonia and Latvia. He claims that NATO’s British-led Enhanced Forward Battle Group stationed in Estonia would be quickly overwhelmed, suffering heavy losses before retreating.
Such an attack, he argues, would result in the UK, Germany, France, and Italy declaring war on Russia. However, NATO’s unity may be tested, with countries such as Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia potentially refusing to engage, and the US possibly opting to stay out of the conflict.
Threats to the UK and Wider Europe
According to Shirreff, the conflict would not be confined to Eastern Europe. He suggests that Russia could launch missile strikes on RAF bases in the UK and military installations across Western Europe, prompting retaliatory strikes from NATO forces on Russian military and energy infrastructure.
He also speculates on political developments in Ukraine, suggesting that Kyiv’s mayor and former boxer, Vitali Klitschko, could rise to power, replacing President Volodymyr Zelensky. Shirreff further claims that within two years, Ukraine could develop nuclear weapons and potentially use them against Russia, which he argues could lead to a coup in Moscow and the possible fragmentation of Russia.
While Shirreff acknowledges this scenario as speculative, he insists that failure to prepare would allow Putin to dictate the future.
Europe Increases Defence Spending
In response to growing security concerns, European nations are significantly boosting their defence budgets:
- UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has pledged an additional £13.4 billion in annual defence spending from 2027.
- The European Commission has committed £674 billion to rearming Europe and Ukraine.
- Poland is set to allocate 4.7% of its GDP to defence, surpassing the 3.4% spent by the US.
- France, Belgium, Denmark, and Germany have all announced increases in military budgets, even at the expense of welfare programmes.
Despite these efforts, Shirreff warns that preparations may not be sufficient, stating, “We might have left it too late.”
Urgency for Military Readiness
With tensions rising and NATO’s unity under scrutiny, European leaders are acting to strengthen defences. Shirreff’s warning highlights the need for strategic planning and military preparedness in the face of potential conflict.
As instability in Europe grows, the key question remains: will the UK and its allies be ready if war breaks out?
